Ifah SakinahThe question, “When will the coronavirus pandemic end?”, has been on everyone’s mind and is clogging the Internet. In fact, this burning question was a recently trending search on Google.
While there are no conclusive answers that can be proven to be true with evidence, researchers at the Singapore University of Technology and Design (SUTD) sheds some light on when the virus might end for a particular country using an artificial intelligence algorithm.
The research employs the SIR (Susceptible – Infected – Recovered) model that describes the dynamics of the infectious disease and applies data from Our World in Data, which comprise total confirmed cases, total deaths, and testings.
What is churned out from this systematic investigation are estimates on the pandemic life cycle curves and theoretical ending dates.
The independent research project carries a disclaimer that both the model and the data cannot faultlessly capture the complexity and ever-evolving nature of the disease and should be assimilated with caution. Over-optimism from the promising predictions could cause the pandemic to prolong if the government immediately unveils plans to lift restrictions already in place.
Globally, the system forecasts the pandemic to end this December. However, the predictions vary to a great extent among countries.
Here are some of the prediction dates for various countries on when the coronavirus could end:
1. Singapore
Ends 99% on 16/05/2020
2. Malaysia
Ends 99% on 23/05/2020
3. Indonesia
Ends 99% on 01/07/2020
4. United States of America
Ends 99% on 04/06/2020
5. United Kingdom
Ends 99% on 05/06/2020
6. France
Ends 99% on 21/05/2020
7. Italy
Ends 99% on 27/05/2020
8. Spain
Ends 99% on 22/05/2020
It is encouraging to learn that there is a predicted end date for this pandemic and that parts of the world are starting to record zero new COVID-19 cases consecutively. However, do not succumb to complacency as this would risk a new COVID-19 wave. Comply strictly with the measures enforced to tackle the outbreak, and the day which coronavirus could end could come sooner than expected for your country.
Also read: Taiwan’s Going Strong: Hardly Any Additional COVID-19 Cases Per Day!
